Where Has the Excitement Gone? This Fall of the Goals from Open Play

Football match action
The Wolves squad managed a decrease of 10 scores from open play than this point the previous campaign.

One of the biggest stories of the EPL season so far is the reduction of goals scored in open play and the way teams are netting more from set-pieces instead.

When we compare goal sources to the first 11 games the prior season, there have been 39 fewer goals in open play and an increase of 26 from set-plays and penalties, leading to 13 fewer in total.

Considering overall statistics, efforts on goal sides are producing have seen a staggering 370 fewer in open-play than this time previously.

Even with the big increase in dead-ball scores, we've actually seen just two more attempts created from them excluding penalties, showing the proficiency sides are at devising strategies to score from set-pieces.

Scoring Rates Reveal the Tale

Over 300 goals notched in 110 games up to now works out at 2.74 goals per game, which if it continued for all 38 games might be the least for half a decade, back in 2020-21 (2.69).

Yet merely 196 scores scored in open-play averages out 1.78 per fixture and is tracking to be the lowest for since 2009-10, from 16 years ago (1.76).

That campaign additionally represents the unique EPL season to see goals scored more frequently from non-penalty set-pieces than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 per game (0.79 per game).

Which Teams Are Most Responsible?

In terms of goals scored from open play, Wolves have seen the largest drop, netting just four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 less than this point the previous campaign.

Excluding Wolverhampton, the Premier League's decline in open-play scoring is very much a trend among London clubs, with half of the city's seven teams scoring five or more less scores from open play than the prior season.

In fairness, this is mainly because their scoring many scores at the beginning of last season rather than their genuine struggle to score in open play this campaign.

Conversely City have seen the biggest increase, with nearly all of their 23 scores this season originating in open play.

Set-Piece Success

Looking at clubs that came up with the teams that went down they took the place of. Play-off winners Sunderland have scored an additional three scores in open play than the Saints did in their opening 11 matches en route to the drop last season.

When it comes to scoring from set-plays (aside from penalties), the Gunners and Chelsea have recorded the biggest increase, with each team replacing the five less scores that they've produced in open play with identical figures from dead-ball chances.

Manchester United have netted two times more scores from set-pieces as they did in the 11 games last season before the manager took charge, while Sunderland additionally are better at scoring than the fellow red-and-whites that went down.

Manchester City don't seem to have got the memo about scoring more from set-plays, as they've scored three less than the previous campaign, as have Nottingham Forest, even if this may result from the altered approach they have tried to implement.

League-Wide Trends

Six sides – the Gunners, Chelsea, the Cottagers, the Magpies, Spurs and the Hammers – represent this term's top trend-setters by netting less goals from open play and increased from set-plays, while Manchester City are the only side to go against the grain to date by doing the contrary.

It remains to be seen to see if teams persist to place such emphasis on set-pieces as matches continue or if they find again their general attacking flair and commence scoring more goals in open-play also.

Crystal Wiggins
Crystal Wiggins

A gaming technology analyst with over a decade of experience in slot machine design and industry research, passionate about innovation.