Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Commons Return
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.
Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure
A number of figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avoid any potential leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several sources also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.
