A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
